Category Archives: Global Economy

Pertinent to global economic issues and events.

The Greek Tragedy

The link below takes you to a Reuters report on the Athens protests of yesterday, Thursday, October 18.

http://news.yahoo.com/clashes-erupt-greek-anti-austerity-protests-032423852.html

I traveled yesterday by motor coach from Volos to Athens, getting off at the Patissia train station and boarding the metro line. At the metro station where I got off there were taxis waiting and picking up passengers. Everything seemed normal to me. It seems that the reported demonstrations must have been limited to the area around the Parliament building, and the strike may not have been as general as the press reported.

In any case, the developing situation here in Greece is a clear manifestation of how nation states are being forced to surrender sovereignty upward to the elite international power group that controls the global system of money, banking, and finance. All other countries are caught in the same usury-debt trap and will follow in order. As this plan for an (undemocratic) new world order proceeds, national politicians will do the bidding of their global masters and the police and military will be used to suppress popular dissent. Demonstrations are often infiltrated by agents provocateur whose role it is to initiate violence and provide an excuse for police brutality and ultimately the imposition of martial law.

While it is important for people to express their disapproval and outrage, and to speak truth to power, it is essential that we exercise the power we already have to take care of ourselves and each other.

We must first of all reduce our dependence on the global systems that are controlled by the power elite and are used to exploit and repress us. We must begin by becoming independent of their money system.

It is essential that we join together in solidarity to assure that everyone’s basic needs are taken care of. We must cooperate in building new structures that enable us to satisfy our basic needs together in our own communities. Most important amongst these new structures are trading networks that enable us to exchange our goods and services without borrowing from banks and without the use of political money. This is the pathway toward economic democracy, without which political democracy remains an elusive dream.–t.h.g.

Debunking economic growth

Herman Daly is one of the few academic economists who talks sense. He has been a staunch advocate of sustainable development and steady-state economics. Here is an excerpt from his recent article. –t.h.g  

Eight Fallacies about Growth

by Herman Daly

One thing the Democrats and Republicans will agree on in the current U.S. presidential campaign is that economic growth is our number one goal and is the basic solution to all problems. The idea that growth could conceivably cost more than it is worth at the margin, and therefore become uneconomic in the literal sense, will not be considered. But, aside from political denial, why do people (frequently economists) not understand that continuous growth of the economy (measured by either real GDP or resource throughput) could in theory, and probably has in fact, become uneconomic? What is it that confuses them?

Read the full article here.

What’s the “Occupy” movement all about?—Part 4

Nobody can speak for a movement that is as inclusive and diverse as the Occupy Wall Street movement. We each speak for ourselves, but out of that can come shared values and ideals and, eventually, coherent action that will result in significant improvement in the situation for everyone.

But catch this—Fox News was out doing man-in-the street interviews about the Occupy Wall Street movement when they happened upon Jesse LaGreca who turned out to be a knowledgeable and articulate unofficial working class spokesperson. Fox never aired the interview but it has found its way onto the internet and is causing quite a stir. Here it is:

And watch this follow-up interview with Jesse on KIRO-FM:

An Update on the Iceland Financial Crisis

Because of the way in which its people have responded to the financial crisis, tiny Iceland has drawn a lot of attention lately. Some pertinent information about this was provided in a previous post. Prof. Margrit Kennedy, author of Interest and Inflation Free Money, traveled to Iceland recently on a fact-finding tour. Her report below provides some additional insights. –t.h.g.

A Visit in Iceland

Margrit Kennedy. 23 September 2011

[English translation by Prof. Philip Beard, Ph.D.]

When I read an article two months ago about the state bankruptcy in Iceland and the public’s refusal to accept the government’s debt retirement plan, as a result of which the three largest banks became insolvent, I decided to travel to Iceland.  I wanted to find out whether the new, popularly-elected 25-member  Council, whose job was to formulate proposals for a new constitution, had made any statements regarding the monetary or financial system.  No such news had shown up in the several reports and English translations I’d gathered.

So a week ago, off I flew, after having received a few contact addresses from friends and having made three appointments with “Constitutional Council” members via email.  I stayed in Reykjavik from 9/13 till 9/19 and then went for a day to Solheimar, Iceland’s only eco-village, whose director had supplied me with these council members’ addresses.

Hardly had I arrived at my Reykjavik hotel when the first of my interlocutors showed up: Salvör Nordal.  A professor of ethics at Reykjavik University, she answered my questions patiently, and in about the first half hour filled me in on what all my later conversations would confirm: No, no one had said anything about the systemic monetary roots of the crash.  The Council’s discussions revolved around laying new groundwork for their democracy, environmental protection and protection of the commons, more transparency in governmental affairs and thereby better regulatory capacities.  She was glad to hear and watch my short presentation on the topic “Money rules the world!  — But who rules the money?”, and immediately said, “You must meet my friend in the finance ministry.  For sure, she’ll be fascinated by what you’ve got to say.”  Then she departed.  It was Tuesday evening.

The next day I met the man who had been elected to the Council with the most votes, the economist Prof. Sylfarson.  We had a short, congenial conversation of about an hour in which I learned that from where he stood, the situation in Iceland had returned to “normal”.  Before the crash everything had been more or less exaggerated: salaries, the value of the Icelandic crown, housing prices, the standard of living.  In his opinion his countryfolk were still doing well (which corresponded to my own first impressions), and Iceland was now catching up to the rules that every other European democracy had been practicing for decades, e.g. universal suffrage, transparency of public budgets, environmental laws, etc.

And no, the monetary system had not come under discussion.  Monetary matters remained pretty much as they had been, except that an index was now being applied to loans in order to reduce excessive credit demands.

He had never heard of complementary currencies, though he was very interested in the couple of examples I described to him and asked me to send him more information.

My third conversation partner was the young singer Svarvar, a friend of friends who had witnessed the so-called “revolution” but hadn’t taken part in it.  His opinion was that people had just been venting their fury at having all gotten poorer again, but he hadn’t seen much in the way of new values being adopted.

I could see, though, that the money theme fascinated him.  He brought a few of his friends to my talk at Reykjavik University that I had been invited to give by the dean of the engineering and natural sciences faculty, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, and some of her colleagues.  They were all astonished that the room they’d chosen for the lecture turned out much too small.  But the concierge had already figured from the many phone calls he’d received that we would need a larger room, and had arranged for it.

It took a little time to get the crowd moved to the new room, but an atmosphere of high spirits and goodwill prevailed.  Obviously the 150-200 guests, many overflowing into the hallways, expected I’d be talking to them about something important.  And I later learned that two translators had already published parts of my first book in Icelandic; they proudly showed me their published articles, replete with graphs.  They didn’t know each other, but had each motivated a sizeable number of people to come to the talk.  I could tell from their questions how deeply concerned they were about this topic, and I agreed to meet with the “hard core” of a few grassroots groups on Sunday evening at one of their gathering places to discuss action strategies.

That evening at dinner I had the pleasure of a conversation with the personal adviser of the Economics Minister about the drama that had led up to the near-total collapse of Iceland’s financial and economic system.  This evening was the preparation for my discussion with the minister and the government’s chief economic adviser on Monday, shortly before leaving Reykjavik.

It was an important meeting for me, and for these two leading specialists as well.  As it turned out, they had never before so clearly perceived the role of interest and compound interest in the lead-up to the collapse, even though they’d been confronted with it practically every day since 2006.  And their serious countenances showed that they were taking it to heart.  Their comments indicated however that it would take considerable time before these new insights could be applied to political practice.  Germany, they said with mild regret, had no doubt been among the hardest hit by the whole matter.  [Translator’s note: It’s unclear how this last sentence relates to the preceding line of thought.]

But I did have the feeling that they were open to new solutions.  Most impressive for me was the evening I spent with representatives of perhaps seven grassroots initiatives, of whom at least three had been trying for years to get the money topic on people’s radar screens, with little prior but now greater success, to judge by their growing membership figures and the fact that they’re now “being heard” in the media.

The main topic was action strategies.  Lots of concrete questions: How can we change this and that?  What’s the best way to introduce complementary currencies?  How can we reduce the debt burden that’s been forced upon our poorer citizens?

I told of our experiences with barter circles, regional currencies, and the WIR system, and described our successes in the Chiemgau and Vorarlberg regions.  And I promised to send them written summaries of the key ingredients.

In any event we shall stay in contact, exchanging news of problems and successes.  As I left I had the feeling of having sown some seeds – having nourished the hope and the knowledge that new pathways lie before us, and what they might look like.

Overall a newcomer to this country notices little of its bout with bankruptcy.  You do see several unfinished skyscraper projects, especially near the seacoast and on the way to the airport.  But very few people or neighborhoods look genuinely poor.

With the help of the 2.1-billion euro credit from the IMF, the country has once again just barely avoided total breakdown.  Now people are rolling up their sleeves and saying, “We’ll make it back.”  I certainly hope they will, because I have become very fond of the Icelanders in the week I spent with them.

The best, most concrete outcome of this trip would be for the grassroots groups to enjoy a new level of attention, understanding, and perhaps even active support for their efforts at introducing new systems – systems that prove that we can run our monetary affairs without interest.

#     #     #

Here is a link to a tv interview of Prof. Kennedy by Egill Helgason, which was aired on Icelandic television on Sunday the 25th of September 2011: http://silfuregils.eyjan.is/2011/09/26/fjarmalakerfi-sem-leidir-til-glotunar/

Time to pay the piper: Who gets stuck with the bill?

Prior to his recent visit to China, Vice-president Joe Biden tried to assure investors that U.S. Treasury bonds are still a good investment, saying that the US administration “is deeply committed to maintaining the fundamentals of the US economy” to “ensure the safety, liquidity and value of US Treasury obligations for all of its investors”.

Good try, but the Chinese are not buying it, nor, it seems, is anyone else. The Federal Reserve has become of late the biggest buyer of treasury bonds, and Standard and Poor recently announced that they have downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+. Dollar denominated securities are now becoming a “hot potato” as loss of purchasing power of the dollar seems assured.

An August 19, 2011 article in China Daily titled, Experts urge China to trim US T-bond holdings, quotes both Chinese and American authorities and concludes thatChina should reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to protect the value of its massive foreign exchange reserves.” Here are some excerpts:

“China should move progressively to cut its holdings of US Treasury bonds and use it as leverage to ask Washington to further open its markets, including the high-technology sector, to Chinese investment,” Xiang Songzuo, deputy director of the Center for International Monetary Research at Renmin University of China, said at a forum.

“Washington should provide a guarantee on the safety of China’s assets,” while it is creating global inflationary pressure through quantitative easing to stimulate its economy, Xiang said

Zhu Chao, assistant dean of the School of Finance at the Capital University of Economics and Business, said Biden’s promises were more symbolic than meaningful.

Stephen Roach, the non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said that the US debt crisis has shaken China’s confidence in Washington but the pro-consumption shift in its economic structure will help reduce the pace of its foreign-exchange accumulation.

“The US debt crisis has taken a serious toll on China’s confidence in Washington’s economic stewardship,” Roach said in a research note.

“China is no longer willing to risk financial and economic stability on the basis of Washington’s hollow promises and tarnished economic stewardship.”

The situation suggests some major policy questions that could have far-reaching effects on the American economy and on the American middle-class. China has, up to now, been willing to accept America’s i.o.u.’s in exchange for all those computers, TVs, shoes, clothing, and other goodies that Americans have been gobbling up at bargain prices. Now the piper must be paid, one way or another. Will Washington “further open its markets, including the high-technology sector, to Chinese investment,” as the Chinese are demanding? Will the U.S. government allow Chinese companies to buy up American companies, real estate, and infrastructure?

You can’t blame the Chinese for wanting real value in return for what they have already delivered. The fault lies with the policies of the past 30 years that, in the guise of “free trade,” have promoted the interests of the few at the expense of the many.—t.h.g.

Move Your Money

The movement away from dependence upon mega-banks and political currencies is gaining momentum, not only amongst individuals and companies, but also amongst countries that have lost confidence in the international banking establishment.

The Associated Press reports today that Venezuela is recalling $11B in gold reserves. Here are some excerpts:

President Hugo Chavez announced Wednesday he is nationalizing Venezuela’s gold mining industry and intends to bring home $11 billion in gold reserves currently held in U.S. and European banks.

Central Bank president Nelson Merentes said on television that the decision to move the gold reserves was being taken out of “prudence.”

Venezuela has nearly $4.6 billion of its gold reserves in the Bank of England, according to a report by Finance Minister Jorge Giordani that was leaked to the news media Tuesday by an opposition lawmaker.

The report said additional Venezuelan gold reserves are held by the U.S. bank J.P. Morgan Chase, British banks Barclays, HSBC and Standard Chartered, France’s BNP Paribas and Canada’s Bank of Nova Scotia.

Giordani and Merentes, who appeared together on television Wednesday, said they proposed to Chavez that Venezuela’s nearly $6.3 billion in non-gold international reserves such as bank deposits and bonds should be reviewed and transferred from U.S. and European banks to countries they consider safer, including China, Russia and Brazil, among other countries in Asia and Latin America.

It makes sense for countries like Venezuela to hold their reserves in the currencies of countries that actually produce something and from whom they make substantial purchases. While the U.S. remains one of its main suppliers, Venezuela also imports significant amount from Colombia, China, Brazil and Mexico.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., there has been a growing grassroots movement in which savers are taking their money out of the large banking corporations and moving it into credit unions and locally owned banks. One significant development is the Move Your Money Project, “a nonprofit campaign that encourages individuals and institutions to divest from the nation’s largest Wall Street banks and move to local financial institutions.” Go here to find one near you.

In my May presentation to the Financial Planning Association, I provided a resource list that included financing alternatives for enterprises and options for savers and investors.

As a side note, you may be interested in viewing Dylan Ratigan’s recent rant on MSNBC, in which he complained that the “Banking system is corrupt and defrauding us.” You can see it here.—t.h.g.

My movie now available, and the further decline of the dollar

In early May, I gave a presentation to the Financial Planning Association, which I titled, Financial Planning in the Emerging Butterfly Economy. The slide show was posted here shortly thereafter. Now, thanks to Bill Jackson, we have that presentation in movie form, complete with my slides and narrative. You will find both of these listed in the sidebar to the right under, My Audio-visual presentations You can also view the movie by going directly to the Slide Show Album on my Vimeo site, http://vimeo.com/album/1660843.

You should also be aware that the United States has for the first time in its history, lost its triple-A debt rating. Standard & Poor’s announced on Friday that “it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. Standard & Poor’s also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative,” which suggests that further downgrades are likely. You can read the entire S&P statement here.

The recent budget cuts agreed upon by Congress are a mere drop in the deficit “bucket.” As I said many years ago, so long as the debt-money system based upon compounding interest prevails, the federal government budget cannot be balanced. As we have seen very clearly in the recent bailouts by government of banks and financial institutions, government is the borrower of last resort. If government does not play that role, the entire global financial system collapses, as it almost did in 2008.-t.h.g.

Has the chrysalis stage begun?

Dave Gardner is director of the upcoming documentary GrowthBusters. Here is his recent article that appears on the website of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE).

Gardner points out that there is good reason to celebrate the “bad” economic news being reported in the media. Hopefully, his upcoming film will include something about compound interest and the debt-money system that has been driving endless growth of production and consumption. Debt growth must cease if we are to make a smooth transition.-t.h.g.

Good News: Economic Recovery Stalls!

Posted By Dave Gardner On August 3, 2011

by Dave Gardner, director of the upcoming documentary GrowthBusters

Economic news last Friday was quite positive. Annualized U.S. GDP growth was less than one percent in the first half of 2011.

However, I would hazard a guess that, oh, some 99.9 percent of the world considered this bad news. It was characterized in the New York Times [1] as a “snail’s pace.” Journalists and commentators around the world are predictably typing out words like weak, anemic, malaise, gloomy, bleak, doldrums and stagnation.

So why would I celebrate? Do I get perverse, morbid pleasure at seeing my fellow humans unemployed, upside down in their mortgages, or dining at soup kitchens? I do not. The fallout of the recession is real, it’s painful, and it’s sad. But steady or declining GDP is not bad news. Nor is the drop in consumer spending [2] reported Tuesday.

While many impacts of the recession are tragic, these are the pains of adjusting to a new reality: the end of growth. They are a necessary part of a temporary phase. We might call it the cocoon phase, as we metamorphose into something more beautiful.

Consider these headlines from the past two years. Are they good news or bad?

  • Recession Puts Babies on Hold
  • Tiny House Movement Thrives Amid Real Estate Bust
  • Home Production Falls as Economy Languishes
  • Global Coal Use Stagnates Despite Growing Chinese and Indian Markets
  • Total Municipal Waste Generation Dropped
  • Home Depot Calls a Halt to Rapid Expansion
  • European Union Carbon Pollution Drops
  • GM to Close Hummer
  • Gasoline Spike Fuels Surge in U.S. Bicycle Sales
  • Bottled Water Consumption Growth Slows
  • 30-Year Growth Spurt Ends for Average American House Size
  • Ad Spending Down
  • Airlines Ground More Than 11% of Their Jets
  • Breast Implants are Deflating Along With the Economy
  • More Than 400 Meetings in Las Vegas Recently Cancelled
  • 2nd Home Market Declined 30%

Looking at these headlines through an archaic lens, last century’s worldview that growth is the Holy Grail, these stories seemed like bad news. But through a more modern, 21st century lens that values true sustainability, they herald a world slowing down toward a responsible level of human activity.

Think about it. Smaller houses mean less deforestation, less habitat converted to subdivisions, less concrete (production of which emits significant CO2), and less living space to heat or cool (again reducing CO2 emissions). Less coal use is also good news in the greenhouse gas department — as are grounded jets, no more Hummers and a switch to bicycles. Strangely we see no signs that politicians, pundits or journalists are thinking this deeply about the subjects.

I’m not the first to recognize this recession as an opportunity. Great minds like Gus Speth and David Korten are doing their best to turn this recession into a course correction. Korten’s Why This Crisis May Be Our Best Chance to Build a New Economy [3], and Speth’s Towards a New Economy and a New Politics [4] are good examples of this. Even Jay Leno got into the act, congratulating President George W. Bush in 2008 for doing more to fight climate change than Al Gore — by slowing the economy. Of course the impacts of economic growth reach far beyond the climate. Our increasing economic activity is causing habitat destruction, species extinction and pollution [5]; and it is liquidating critical resources like fertile soil.

I’m aware of no journalist who sought out Speth, Korten, Daly, Czech, Victor or Heinberg for an alternative view on Friday’s news. A story about ice melting would include comments from both real climate scientists and climate change deniers. But for this GDP story there was no discussion in the newsrooms about getting the other side — a quote about how terrific it is that gross domestic product may be settling toward a steady state. They assume GDP growth is good news and economic contraction is bad news — for everyone. It doesn’t even occur to them to question that assumption. Blind faith in the old worldview still has a tight grip on the reporters and editors. This needs to change.

I look forward to seeing the butterfly!

Dave Gardner is the filmmaker behind the documentary, GrowthBusters, which premieres in late October. The nonprofit film’s final fundraising campaign on Kickstarter [6] is in its last week. For more information about the film or to organize a screening, visit www.growthbusters.org [7]. Dave can be reached at dave@growthbusters.org [8].

Iceland, a case that deserves careful study

Iceland was one of the first countries to experience the financial crisis that plagues the world. It seems to be the canary in the coal mine, and as such, it may be showing us not only what is in store for the rest of us, but also a way out of our dilemma.

In this series of 5 videos, Prof. Michael Hudson explains very clearly what happened to Iceland and shows it to be an example of the pattern that is being played out in the rest of the world.

In the time since that interview was recorded, the people of Iceland have taken action that may get to the root of the problem. Instead of bailing out the banks and rewarding those who caused the problem in the first place, Iceland has, according to one of my correspondents:
– Totally recalled its government.
– Nationalized its main banks.
– Decided not to honor the claims from the UK and Holland due to their speculative policies.
– Created a popular assembly to rewrite its constitution.

Strangely, there has been very little about that in the media.

I would very much like to see reports that detail these actions, so I invite any of my readers who find them to pass them on by making comments to this post–t.h.g.

Exponential growth

I’ve tried to explain in my books and lectures that the world is now at a critical point. Many things have been growing exponentially and are now pushing up against the physical limits. I argue that the driver of economic growth has been the debt money system in which money is created on the basis of interest-bearing debt, which is an exponential function. Debt must be continually expended in order to put enough money into the economy to service the previously created debt. But the amount of money is never enough for all debts to be repaid, so a day of reckoning must eventually arrive. We are now very close to that day.

Someone who has done a great job of explaining these things in video format is Chris Martenson. I highly recommend that everyone watch his Crash Course. In the video below, he explains exponential growth and highlights many of the factors that are approaching their limits.